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Investing.com -- ASML Holding N.V. (AS:ASML) raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast on Wednesday after the Dutch maker of semiconductor lithography equipment beat first-quarter profit and sales estimates, as AI-driven chip demand accelerated customer orders, though export restrictions on China sales clouded the outlook.
Shares in the world’s biggest chipmaking equipment supplier fell 1.7% in Amsterdam and around 5% in the U.S. as of 09:38 ET (13:38 GMT). The stock was initially up after the release.
Analysts were divided on the outlook. “While estimates are likely to rise modestly further towards the high-end of the new range, we expect the valuation multiple to gradually de-rate, limiting share price upside,” said analysts at Jefferies in a note.
BofA Securities reiterated its “buy” rating, pointing to stronger immersion lithography demand and rising EUV capacity, and sees potential for higher earnings power into 2027.
ASML now sees 2026 net sales of between €36 billion and €40 billion, against a prior forecast of €34 billion to €39 billion, straddling the €37.68 billion LSEG consensus estimate.
The company guided second-quarter revenue of €8.4 billion to €9 billion, with the €8.7 billion midpoint below the €9.04 billion LSEG estimate.
First-quarter net income came in at €2.76 billion, beating the €2.54 billion LSEG estimate, as total net sales reached €8.77 billion against an €8.5 billion consensus.
Gross margin was 53%, above the 52.2% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. Basic earnings per share were €7.15. ASML sold 67 new lithography systems in the quarter, down from 94 in the prior quarter.
"The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments," chief executive Christophe Fouquet said in a statement. "Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond."
Memory chips accounted for 51% of new tool sales in the quarter, up from 30% in the fourth quarter of 2025, as South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix ramped capacity to meet AI-driven demand.
Customers in South Korea accounted for 45% of first-quarter sales, while Taiwan represented 23%.
ASML, the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines essential to producing advanced AI chips, is seen as a bellwether for semiconductor demand.
Its top customer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co last week reported record first-quarter revenue on sustained AI chip demand.
China, which generated around one-third of group sales in 2025, remains a growing uncertainty. System sales to China fell to 19% of overall first-quarter sales from 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers this month introduced legislation that would ban exports of ASML’s less-advanced deep ultraviolet machines to China, though the bill has yet to clear the legislative process.
Fouquet said the guidance range was sized to accommodate “potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls."
Cash and short-term investments stood at €8.38 billion at quarter-end, down from €13.32 billion previously. ASML purchased around €1.1 billion of shares in the first quarter under its 2026-2028 buyback programme and intends to declare a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per share, a 17% increase from 2024.